Amid tariff uncertainty, business leaders can’t control the macroeconomic climate but can prepare by evaluating the range of plausible outcomes, note Senior Partner Olivia White and coauthors. They’ve developed five scenarios and charted the economic effects of each. Two scenarios—productivity acceleration and US fiscal reset—would lead to a thriving economy, with higher trust and better balance, but along differing paths. Two others—no real disruption and central banks tighten—would deliver flat results and fail to rebuild trust. The fifth—geopolitical tensions escalate—is likely to stunt growth, diminish trust, and worsen imbalances. Click through the interactive to see more.
To read the article, see “In a moment of tariffs, can the world find balance and trust to thrive?,” May 2, 2025.