How countries can analyze, and plan for, the socioeconomic impacts of the net-zero transition
The global transition to net-zero is one of the most significant economic shifts of our time, but its socioeconomic impacts remain a critical concern for policymakers, businesses, and communities. To address this challenge, McKinsey Sustainability hosted a webinar introducing the Climate Transition Impact Framework (C-TIF)—a structured approach to analyzing and managing the socioeconomic effects of the net-zero transition.
The C-TIF, developed by McKinsey Sustainability in consultation with over 70 organizations, provides a comprehensive framework and modeling approach. It equips decision-makers with an economy-wide view of the climate transition’s impacts on people which helps them navigate the complexities of an equitable and inclusive transition.
These are the key insights from the session. Cindy Levy and James Patterson-Waterston kicked off the webinar with an overview of the framework and were followed by remarks from former leaders Iván Duque (Former President of Colombia) and Claire O’Neill (Former UK Minister of Climate Change) who shared their insights on how it can be used in practice at the national and local level.
CTIF’s Role in Supporting an equitable and inclusive transition
- Structured Impact Assessment: The C-TIF provides a systematic way to evaluate the socioeconomic effects of the net-zero transition across five areas: energy affordability, investment needs, employment shifts, economic competitiveness, and health/environmental benefits. This helps governments and businesses anticipate risks and opportunities.
- Understanding context: The framework reveals stark contrasts in how countries experience the transition—e.g., Kenya’s potential gains in renewables versus Kazakhstan’s fossil fuel challenges. As former leaders in government, the guest speakers emphasized its value in implementing transparent policymaking, particularly in assessing labor and fiscal impacts.
- Evolving Global Tool: The C-TIF is designed to adapt through real-world applications and stakeholder input. Countries can deploy it in national transition planning, with potential to shape public-private partnerships and inform COP30 discussions.
What leaders have to say about C-TIF
President Iván Duque emphasized the CTIF’s potential to help define costs and impacts for better policymaking, especially in the Global South. Duque noted that the C-TIF could have helped Colombia assess decision-making: “It would have provided us with tools to define costs and impacts in terms of labor markets, investment, fiscal pressure, and social impact.” He sees it as a key tool for public-private partnerships and looks forward to its impact at COP 30.
Claire O’Neill stressed the need for transparent, fact-based climate decision-making. She highlighted the C-TIF’s ability to provide a comprehensive view of trade-offs, making it essential for local decision-making and ensuring an inclusive transition: “We really don’t historically put all the trade-offs in one place. This framework does that.”
Why the C-TIF Matters
The net-zero transition is underway, but it has not adequately addressed the implications of this transition for the lived experience of people on the ground. The C-TIF offers a data-driven approach to:
- Identify co-benefits (e.g., job creation in renewables)
- Mitigate burdens (e.g., reskilling fossil fuel workers)
- Align decision-making, investment, and public communication
Bridging Climate Ambition and Action with the C-TIF
The C-TIF can help leaders and decision-makers as they navigate towards an equitable, data-driven climate transition. Its continuous improvement and global adoption, especially in vulnerable economies, could speed up equitable progress toward net-zero. Tools like this can help bridge the gap between climate goals and actionable, inclusive solutions.
Interested in learning more? Read the full report here and contact us to discuss how to implement the Climate Transition Impact Framework.